Page 174 - MALAYSIA HEALTH SECTOR RESPONSE TO COVID-19 PANDEMIC: PERSPECTIVES FROM THE FIELD

Improving the forecast models for the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia

The MOH Malaysia has utilised forecast models for the COVID-19 pandemic
in Malaysia since the emergence of this pandemic to forecast daily, active,
and cumulative COVID-19 case trends in Malaysia. These models were
updated constantly to generate accurate and reliable forecasts. In a
collaborative study between IMR, ICR, and Heriot-Watt University, the
Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) model was modified by factoring its
early depleting trend observed during the lockdown to better predict its
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temporal trend in Malaysia . Another study by ICR aimed to reveal the
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real spreading pattern of COVID-19 by excluding from the modelling,
incarcerated clusters such as prison clusters in Sabah, Kedah, and Penang,
which mushroomed during the third COVID-19 wave in Malaysia. The findings
showed that the inclusion of these incarcerated clusters indeed shadowed
the COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the community with a lower
transmission rate, which might lead to a wrong interpretation of the
community transmission dynamics. Furthermore, a Susceptible-Expose-
Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model was also utilised to explore the
effectiveness of isolation, quarantine, and the MCO, in preventing the
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transmission of COVID-19 in Malaysia. The IMR study showed that these
control measures managed to break the COVID-19 transmission in Malaysia.

Exploring alternative methods for the rapid detection of SARS-CoV-2

Quantitative reverse transcription PCR (RT-qPCR) assays have been
developed for the rapid detection of SARS-CoV-2. It was highly sensitive and
specific yet too expensive to be widely used in many developing countries.
RT-qPCR also required experienced personnel, maintenance of reagents in
a cold storage facility, and the use of a high-precision thermal cycler. Loop-
mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP), on the other hand, represented
a potential alternative for molecular testing, as it took less than one hour
to perform at a constant temperature. Since LAMP did not require any major
equipment and was simple to perform, it represented an ideal diagnostic
tool used in regions with limited resources. In a collaborative study 37,38
between ICR, Sungai Buloh Hospital, and Universiti Malaya, the RT-LAMP
showed comparable performance with RT-qPCR, exhibiting 100% clinical
sensitivity and specificity. Combining simplicity and cost-effectiveness, this
assay is therefore recommended for use in resource-limited settings.

138 EVIDENCE-BASED RESPONSES TO THE THIRD COVID-19 WAVE IN MALAYSIA
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